Welcome to the table for the Friday, March 14th, 2025 installment of Market Plus.

Don Rose is with us.

Don.

during the program, you and I discussed acres, and that's the big talk.

Now ahead.

Acres.

I want to go to Soybean Acres specifically.

You said, soybeans don't really.

They're not real shiny, right now.

People aren't super excited about them.

What happens if the soybean acre number is well below expectations or well above expectations, not just close to what we're thinking.

What happens then?

Well, look at it.

We've got a 380 million carryout right now, and we've seen carryout as high as almost a billion.

And we've seen those whittle away in, less than a year and a half.

And we've seen carryout under 200 million have grown pretty fast.

So 380 million can go either way.

But to answer your question squarely, I think right now you have to say that it looks like the acres are going to be a lot less.

I wouldn't be surprised if acres are down 4 million.

acres, Paul and corn up 4 million.

Okay.

Say that half pig.

What?

Okay, so beans with less beans.

Lesbians for sale in the world market.

What's the impact of that, then?

Well, you know, I think it's, you know, it's a lot of competition.

And I think we're going to find out what the real value of a commodity is.

And, you know, when you get down to the cost of production, I mean, look at the you producer in the US, I can't, I mean, soybeans basically this year our loss you know, that's why we're planting corn and the insurance level.

Well that's not a whole lot different than anybody else around the world.

But I you know, there's some things that can change.

I mean, our dollar, you know, continues to slip down a little bit.

So our export pace could, pick up a bit in some of these tariff fears that we have going on ultimately could straighten out over time.

So we got a lot of negative news dialed in the market right now.

Tariffs and a big crop in South America.

We have a lot of tariff questions on the question sheet this week.

Don I shouldn't read things to you out loud.

He always knows what we're going to talk about.

Let's start with Ben and Jubilee and wanted to know between now and Labor Day.

In your opinion, Don, what are the old and new crop?

Corn and soy prices where producers should sell every last kernel and every last bean?

Well, you know, that's always a good question.

Those are always tough questions, because if you know what the weather's going to be and you know some of these other things, but, you know, when you look at you had your your first, weather scare, your first scare, and, every time you get that, you need to view that as something that you should be taking an advantage of.

And, you know, we were up over 480 on these corn.

Not a great price, but I mean, it was it was a price where you had to scale in.

Hopefully we get more of those go down the road.

But I think it's fair to say that you should have 70% of your crop, probably slow, sold on new crop by the time you hit the end of May, and then down to your gambling bushels, particularly if you don't have storage.

Because, okay, what happens if spring planting is delayed?

Is that the whole end of May gives you that wiggle of.

We might see a premium if the corn belt gets to be too wet or something.

You know, that's exactly right.

It might be too wet.

I tell you, there's the bigger concern is that we might be too dry.

We've got about 50% of the corn belt right now is in a dry drought condition.

We've got the sovereign corn crop, which we talked about 1.7 billion bushels of corn.

They're going to harvest in June, July, August.

You know, that one is about, 45% in a dry drought condition.

So, you know, there's some weather concerns.

And we know, that weather is is a big deal in the market.

I always say it's 80% of the market.

So you got a big card out there and a big unknown.

Us Jessup guys got to be annoying at times.

So I'm going to ask you this question.

Ben's question a little different.

Ten and five beans and corn.

Is that kind of the number we're going to be talking a lot about here this year?

$10, $5.

Well I think $5.

I mean I think like right now with the acres that you have coming at us, if we get good weather, I think those are probably unrealistic prices.

soybeans at $10 is probably one that could go to nine.

But look at it this way.

We're going to have more acres of corn.

let's just say at the minimum two and a half last year, we went to 385 on corn.

So, you know, what's the downside?

So, well, what's the downside to me is the the 4 million acre comment you made just a couple of minutes ago.

We do plan all this corn.

We do trend line yield in two bad years of weather.

If we give average whether it's a lot of corn, the market's really going to be able to handle all that well.

It'll still be the outlook.

Well we were.

Which was why the producers I think should be taken up very high insurance rate levels.

Do you take 8590, 95%?

I think it depends on your economics situation, but I think you have to prepare.

And that's why when we had this last rally up, I think you had to prepare for what could happen if all this stuff happens.

So, you can easily go from the carryout where we're at now under 1.6 billion to a 2.3 billion.

and now you're swimming in corn with tariffs in front of us, which.

Is why I go back to my very first point about maybe somebody is going to overthink it and plant more beans than corn just because of that scenario.

Is possible.

But I tell you so far, the seed cells that we're running into don't show that.

But, you know, it's which.

Is a great indicator.

It's a great indicator.

And I know people want to keep the rotation to, but it's pretty attractive when you look at the insurance rates that we had.

All right.

We're going to come back to grains in a minute.

Go livestock for a question here.

Ethan in Kansas wants to know, Don, what is your outlook on cattle?

30 days, six months, next year?

Well, let's look at it this way.

It's possible that you put in the big ten year cattle cycle when we had this big push up.

What we've done so far is challenged it back.

You know, it's hard to say.

I think from a supply standpoint, there's no doubt supplies are going to be tight.

They're going to stay tight.

we haven't really started the, rebuilding herd yet, but I don't I'm not sure that that ultimately is the big issue.

I think the big issue is the demand side of the market.

Do we move into a recession?

So I would say that if you look at it that we probably have a chance.

Odds are, you know, there you wouldn't say it's a big odds, but you never know that the cycle type is in.

We challenged it and now we'll see what happens from here.

But I think we've sat here for a year having the conversation of this economy or this price cannot continue.

This consumer cannot continue to buy.

What is different this time?

Well, I mean, you know, we say that, but at the same time, look at what's really happened.

The equity markets have been going up.

you know, people have had jobs.

Unemployment rate has been pretty low.

So you really haven't seen the pain yet?

you haven't I mean, I would argue, sure.

People are been changing some of their buying habits, but I don't think they've really been pushed hard to change their buying habits.

And I think that's what we're looking at.

Well, and this next question is kind of snarky in my own voice.

I like it.

Dan in Nebraska, are we back to normal?

in.

Come on, let's talk grains.

Are we in the normal trading range?

Well, I think what you have to say is, you know, what is the new normal?

Because we were at one time, we were trading.

I've been at this a while.

You're trading corn between 2 and 3 and then between 3 and 4.

If you just focus on corn, then we shot up to eight and then back down.

So normal is more.

Where is your break evens?

And I think on corn for a lot of people Paul is between 4 and 450.

So when you start to get too far under those numbers things change and they change around the world.

You know, the world production isn't a whole lot different than we are anymore.

Right?

I want to talk about tariffs one more time.

Phil in North Dakota wanted to know something about tariff.

And this is kind of a question that I just want to say it again.

How much will demand be squashed if the tariff war continues.

Well I think it's one that can change, that can be squashed a lot.

and part of the reason is because this whole tariff thing really started back at 1819 with one of our big buyers, China.

And they've learned and they've been working on changing their buying habits around the world.

So they're not dependent 100% on the US like they were at one time.

So I think it's a big issue.

You know, I think one, I don't think tariffs can go on forever.

I don't want to go there.

But to me, tariffs at the beginning are like a mini embargo.

And we know that that's not a positive because the demand switches too fast.

And then the other thing is that happens.

And we saw that in 80 that you lose your client because he switches to somebody else and he views you as not reliable.

So I don't think this can go on fast.

I would want to solve it pretty fast.

If it's going to be a tariff war, I don't want it to go on for a year or six months.

I think you sort sorted out quickly in the course of a few months and see what happens.

This was a question I talked about with some people last week, not on the show, and I asked them and they asked me, well, at what point does the market stop reacting to the threats that come about tariffs?

And they just go about there.

They just shrug it off.

Is that healthy?

Is that good for the market?

Is that responsible?

That sounds like that's not a responsible thing for the markets to do.

But at the same time, this week makes me think that's what the market's doing.

Is it?

Well, I don't think we're going to ignore them because we don't know really what they're going to do yet.

So I don't I think we're still in that sourcing it out.

Once we realize how bad the news is and you go down to price levels, that it's all absorbed, then I think you can believe that from a trader standpoint, I don't think we're there yet.

On the upside or downside, we don't know how good or bad does it really work and help us?

Does it really hurt us?

and push prices down?

We don't know yet, Paul.

And it gets back to your point about the uncertainty, and unreliability.

The farmer wants certainty, the business wants certainty.

We don't have that right now.

Which is, I would guess, an opportunity to put some puts and calls and in some positions in place, use some of those mechanisms to help in this scenario.

Well, what I've told people, if what we've told people is if you ever thought you were going to do risk management, this is probably the time because there's so many things you don't know about, which goes back to which one has the best chance for risk management is the one that seems like it's way high, and that's the cattle industry.

The cattle can change on you pretty fast, so, you know, like we talked about the grain market in the middle of the winter, we had some prices that maybe you didn't want but you could live with.

And I think that's what you're at.

A lot of these commodities risk management is key.

you know, or change your ownership in a different way.

All right.

Last question.

In the next 30 days before I start getting really crazy in the field, what do I need to do to prepare for when I'm a little busier trying to put this crop in the ground?

Well, I think the number one thing you now you're pressed down in some lower levels, okay.

And anything can happen going forward, good and bad.

But we know is probably not a place you want to make new sales.

So probably this is a place that you'd want to do courage calls so that you can take advantage of prices when they move up and not be, spooked or afraid to do something.

Courage calls.

All right.

Thanks, Don.

Good to see you.

Thank you.

Paul, I appreciate.

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Next week we are taking an experiment in cover crops to the next level.

And we'll also have the commodity market analysis with Mark gold.

Thanks for joining us.

Have a great week.